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LTE: a Compelling Answer?

Innovation Reports - 06/07/2009 LTE: a Compelling Answer?

Roadmap and Forecasts up to 2015

This report provides a complete analysis of the LTE (Long Term Evolution) perspective as the next step towards 4G and real mobile broadband networks. It presents an in-depth analysis of LTE deployment strategies through the elaboration of an original cost model. The model is based on individual market contexts and operators' situations regarding legacy infrastructure, spectrum licences awards, the availability of devices and the demand for data services. Resting on thorough market research, this study presents roadmap scenarios and forecasts up to 2015. It also assesses the impact of LTE take-up on the overall mobile ecosystem as we observe the strengthening of current trends towards fixed-mobile convergence and network sharing, a new wave of consolidation in mobile markets and LTE driven global partnerships.


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1. EXCUTIVE SUMMARY
    1.1. The roadmap and forecasts
    1.2. Modelling the business cases
    1.3. Regulations and technicalities

2. METHODOLOGY

3. THE GRAND LTE ROADMAP
    3.1. A healthy ecosystem
    3.2. Commercial launch scheduled for 2010
    3.3. Devices roadmap
    3.4. LTE adoption forecasts by region
    • China, Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, USA

4. WHAT IS THE COST OF LTE DEPLOYMENT?
    4.1. LTE deployment model presentation
    • For dense areas
    • For sparsely populated area
    4.2. Scenario of reference: LTE overlay
    4.3. Base case results
    • 2.1 billion euros over 7 years for 50 million population and 75% coverage

5. WHICH TYPE OF OPERATOR BENEFITS THE MOST?
    5.1. LTE: an integrated operator play
    5.2. Deployment cost of a greenfield operator

6. JUST FOR URBAN HOTSPOTS OR TO SERVE A WIDER AUDIENCE?
    6.1. LTE coverage evolution 
    6.2. LTE cost of deployment according to population coverage
    6.3. Enabling LTE in rural areas: deployment in lower frequency band

7. ENHANCING AND MONETISING THE SERVICE EXPERIENCE
    7.1. VoIP: LTE set to change operators' perception  
    7.2. LTE enhance the mobile experience
    7.3. LTE smart pipe: operators leveraging their central position

8. WHICH REGULATORY CONSTRAINTS FOR LTE DEPLOYMENT?
    8.1. The telecom and Internet regulation review
    8.2. Restrictions applied to base stations
    8.3. Asking for more spectrum and less regulation

9. LTE ACCELERATES THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE MOBILE MARKET
    9.1. Accelerated trend towards Fixed Mobile Convergence
    9.2. LTE strengthens the case for network sharing 
    9.3. LTE drives partnerships in the mobile sector 

10. LTE SPECTRUM: IMPACT ON ROADMAP AND COSTS
    10.1. Potential frequency bands: 2G, 3G bands and more
    10.2. FDD vs. TDD: paired spectrum still dominant but TDD operations gaining ground
    10.3. Roadmap for awards of LTE spectrum licences 
    10.4. Cost of LTE frequencies

11. LTE KEY TECHNOLOGICAL FEATURES 
    11.1. OFDMA and spectrum flexibility 
    11.2. FDD and TDD convergence
    11.3. Evolved Packet Core architecture
                               
                            


• What is the cost of deploying LTE?

• Which type of operator benefits the most?

• What are the regulatory constraints for LTE deployment?

• What are the LTE commercial deployments scheduled by Tier1 operators?

• How LTE could accelerate the development of new popular solutions such as Mobile VoIP, or FMC?

• Could LTE accelerate the consolidation of the mobile market?

Table 1: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland
Table 2: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe 
Table 3: Area, population and density of base case scenario
Table 4: LTE CapEx for base case scenario
Table 5: Sensitivity analysis for mast mutualisation level 
Table 6: LTE adoption advantages and drawbacks for various operators' types
Table 7: LTE investment for different coverage levels for a deployment in the band 2.6 GHz
Table 8: LTE investment for different coverage level for an urban and suburban deployment in the band 2.6 GHz and a rural deployment in the band 790-862 MHz 
Table 9: Services enhanced by LTE 
Table 10: Power limits to limit electromagnetic exposure set by the WHO
Table 11: Selected constraints for LTE deployment in Germany, UK, France and Switzerland 
Table 12: LTE frequency bands by geographical area 
Table 13: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment – FDD mode 
Table 14: Main frequency bands for UMTS/HSPA deployment – TDD mode
Table 15: TDD and FDD mode advantages and drawbacks 
Table 16: Situation of the 2.5-2.69 GHz band 
Table 17: Date of availability of LTE spectrum
Table 18: Swedish 2.6 GHz auctions results
Table 19: Summary of US 700 MHz auctions
Table 20: Estimates of LTE spectrum value in Western Europe 



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Figure 1: Global LTE adoption forecast _ end 2012 – end 2015 (million subscribers)
Figure 2: Major operators’ LTE commercial deployment schedule
Figure 3: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment
Figure 4: LTE devices roadmap 
Figure 5: Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon Wireless partnership influence over LTE 
Figure 6: Options for carriers’ upgrade to LTE depending on technology deployed
Figure 7: Equipment vendors supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance
Figure 8: Mobile operators supporting the LTSI and/or NGMN Alliance 
Figure 9: Major operators’ LTE commercial deployment schedule 
Figure 10: Geographical mapping of early LTE commercial deployment 
Figure 11: LTE devices roadmap
Figure 12: Global LTE adoption forecast _ end 2012 – end 2015 (million subscribers)
Figure 13: LTE adoption forecast for Japan and South Korea, 2012 - 2015
Figure 14: LTE adoption forecast for China, 2012 - 2015 
Figure 15: US subscribers by technology
Figure 16: LTE adoption forecast for the USA, 2012 – 2015
Figure 17: LTE adoption forecast for the EU5 and Scandinavia, 2012 - 2015
Figure 18: Network cost model calculation of RAN elements needed for LTE coverage
Figure 19:  Cumulated population and area in selected European countries
Figure 20: Subscribers with LTE enabled handset
Figure 21: Handset mix among subscriber base 
Figure 22: Global Mobile data and mobile internet monthly traffic per services type 
Figure 23: Average monthly usage per subscriber in Mbit 
Figure 24: UMTS/HSPA and LTE population coverage over time 
Figure 25: Backhaul capacity required per cell site in Mbit per second 
Figure 26: Backhaul technology breakdown in 2008
Figure 27: LTE investment breakdown for base case scenario
Figure 28: Sensitivity of RAN investment to mast mutualisation level
Figure 29: LTE gradual deployment timeline for an average Western Europe MNO
Figure 30: LTE RAN investment according to population coverage _ 2.6 GHz band
Figure 31: Comparison of LTE RAN investment _rural population coverage with 800 MHz and 2,6 GHz spectrum 
Figure 32: LTE investment per inhabitant for various LTE spectrum scenarios
Figure 33: LTE adoption drivers, service innovation and business models
Figure 34: VoIP competitiveness compared to MNO offers
Figure 35: ARPU evolution
Figure 36: Power limits applied in Europe
Figure 37: The case for 2.6 GHz LTE femtocells 
Figure 38: UMTS network and potential sharing 
Figure 39: Vodafone, China Mobile and Verizon wireless influence over LTE ecosystem 
Figure 40: Partnerships between vendors targeting LTE Japanese market
Figure 41: Vendors selected by Verizon Wireless for LTE deployment
Figure 42: Situation of the 698-960 MHz band after WRC-07
Figure 43: TDD and FDD developments
Figure 44: Digital dividend timetable in Europe
Figure 45: Description of OFDM 
Figure 46: Options for carriers’ upgrade to LTE depending on technology deployed 
Figure 47: Technological comparison of mobile broadband technologies 
Figure 48: FDD and TDD duplex both supported by LTE 7
Figure 49: The simplified LTE architecture 

The report contains LTE subscriber forecasts for 2012 and 2015, together with background information on factors affecting subscriber growth.

• A network cost model developed to assess the level of investment required by LTE deployment.

Sensitivity analyses undertaken to study the impact of main variables (legacy network mutualisation, coverage level and frequency bands of deployment)

LTE business cases


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