1. Executive Summary

2. Methodology

3. The Scenarios
 3.1. Three macro-economic scenarios
3.1.1. Key variables
3.1.2. The withdrawal scenario
3.1.3. The networking individual scenario
3.1.4. The tribe scenario

3.2. TV scenario construction
3.2.1. Approach
3.2.2. Key factors, according to the three macro-economic scenarios
• Uses
• Access
• Services
• Financing
• Player strategies

3.3. TV 2020: three disruption scenarios
3.3.1. Scenario 1: "Broadcast as Usual"
3.3.2. Scenario 2: "My Video Web"
3.3.3. Scenario 3: "Community TV"
3.3.4. Figures for the benchmark scenarios
• Which benchmark scenario?
• Scenario figures
• Overall modelling results

3.4. Crisis caused by migration to the Web 

4. Key Innovation Factors
4.1. A third phase in the TV market’s development
4.2. Key factors to the TV sector’s evolution 

5. Key Innovation Factors: Consumption
5.1. State of affairs: TV viewership, 2000-2008
• Individual TV viewing on the rise
• A 2nd generation of general entertainment channels

5.2. Television’s role in people’s leisure time
• TV: most time devoted to ICT
• TV: a small part of households’ ICT budget

5.3. Time-shifted viewing
• Audience moving away from live viewing
• Internet enabling time-shifted viewing

5.4. Piracy and free content

5.5. Role played by social networks

5.6. Consumers as content producers 
• User-created content or User-distributed content? 

6. Key Innovation Factors: Access
6.1. State of affairs: accessing TV
6.1.1. New video networks
6.1.2. Mobile video networks
• DVB-T & DVB-H, Wi-Fi & WiMAX, the IP chain

6.2. Integration into the digital home
6.2.1. New video devices
6.2.2. Three visions of the digital home
• The terminal-centric household: PC or TV
• The user-centric household
• The network-centric household: online or local
6.2.3. The shift to Open TV
6.2.4. Device + service bundles 

7. Key Innovation Factors: Services
7.1. TV & Video services, 2000-2008
• TV channels: growth or consolidation?
• HD DVD: growth outlet?

7.2. Picture quality: what role for 3D?

7.3. Services on demand
7.3.1. Video on demand
7.3.2. Catch-up TV

7.4. Enhanced TV

7.5. Mobile services

7.6. Role of online video services 

8. Key Innovation Factors: Financing
8.1. TV financing, 2000-2008
• TV’s share of advertising spending
• Pay-TV driving market growth

8.2. Advertising: competition & decreasing prices
• Changes to the Web on TV model
• Internet and advertising
• Key role of agencies and ad space sellers

8.3. Pay-TV
• Premium channels: high end, innovation
• Specialty channel packages
• Conflicts in the value chain

8.4. Public financing 

9. Player Strategies
9.1. Initiatives from content providers
• Must-see vs. syndication
• TV channels’ online strategies
• Premium video and back catalogue

9.2. Other players

• Can we make a distinction between current upheavals and overriding trends in the sector?

• How to measure the issues tied to key innovations: new viewing habits, revolutionised access, changes in TV and video services, a redistribution of sources of financing?

• How will media companies emerge from the crisis?

• Is there a shift towards integrated pan-European conglo- merates?

• What are the most likely development scenarios for TV?
  - "My Video Web"
  - "Broadcasting as Usual"
  - "Community TV"

> Market figures for each of the countries examined (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States): TV reception modes, Viewing time, Advertising market, Pay-TV market

Methodology: a rigorous approach

This report provides development scenarios for the TV and video sector up to 2020, based on macro-economic scenarios that integrate hypotheses on the market environment, lifestyle and the networking individual, and by combining:

• analysis of the key development factors: usage, access, services, financing and market players

• construction of TV 2020 scenarios: IDATE shares its view of the expected development trajectory for each of the key issues. Their combination forms the basis of development scenarios for the TV sector as a whole.

• figures for the benchmark scenario: the scope of analysis includes developed countries, with figures for the benchmark scenario applying to the United States and Western Europe’s five main markets: Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the UK.

From scenario modelling to market figures

IDATE has identified 20 factors, broken down into 5 categories, which will shape the TV sector’s evolution. The combination of the expected development path for each factor allows us to establish exclusive scenarios – one of which IDATE has selected as the benchmark scenario, for which figures are provided. The impact and scope of these developments allow us to paint a detailed view of the future state of the television market, and to provide users with a set of benchmark figures, market data and national forecasts up to 2020.:

Access
1. Managed networks and open networks
2. The digital home and devices

Financing
3. Advertising market
4. Pay-TV
5. Public financing
The players
6. Content providers
7. Telcos
8. Internet companies
9. CE manufacturers
10. Regulators

Usage
11. TV’s role in leisure time
12. Time-shifted viewing
13. Piracy and free content
14. Development of social networks
15. Consumers as content producers

Services
16. Picture quality
17. Services on demand
18. Enhanced TV
19. Mobile TV
20. New TV services’ weight in the equation